Demand has been flat over the past 20 years almost entirely due to lighting and motor efficiency gains. Utilities have offered customer rebates to avoid adding more generation.

Switching from incandescent to fluorescent to LED reduced the amount of energy used for lighting to around 1/8th of what it used to be (60w incandescent lamp ~= 8w LED lamp)

Switching from across-the-line starters for three-phase AC induction motors to variable frequency drives and EC motors has yielded the rest of the efficiency gains. A motor driven at 63% of its full rated speed uses 25% of the electricity that it would at full speed.

We’re approaching the point where a majority of the existing lighting and motor controllers have been upgraded, and big tech is building shitloads of multiple GW data centers. There’s also a push to transition natural gas furnace users over to heat pump users which will further stress the grid.