> The proposed plan would grant Musk up to 12% of Tesla's stock, worth about $1.03 trillion if the company hits its target market value of $8.6 trillion. The plan requires boosting Tesla's valuation nearly eightfold, or about $7.5 trillion, over the next decade.
Obviously no chance in hell that Tesla hits that market cap legitimately just based on the performance of the past four years.
However, if the administration succeeds in killing the Fed’s independence and sending inflation to the moon, he might get that payday early! It will in be Zimbabwe dollars, but he will get that trillionaire title (along with many others).
Stocks and company value haven't been tied to reality in years. Tesla could completely cease production and say they're getting in the puppy kicking industry and their stock prices wouldn't fall a bit. They might even skyrocket.
The company still is making good profit, has low debt and has possible revolutionary products ahead. You may hate them but they are still doing well
Apparently their profit is a couple billion, market share is dropping, [1] and they've promised revolutionary products without delivering for a decade now. A multitrillion dollar valuation for a company in decline that fails to deliver innovative or quality products, and a trillion for a dude driving it into the ground, is an interesting quirk of 2010s-2020s economics.
[1] https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/TSLA-Q2-...
Still profitable while other competitors are losing money like BYD and a bunch of traditional gas manufacturers.
They have already released multiple revolutionary products including the first real electric car and then the model y which is the best selling car in the world.
Tough economic situation for a car manufacturer. If you consider running a profitable company during a tough situation and unprecedented tariffs to be "driving into the ground" that's up to you.
Considering Ford and everyone else is absolutely getting clobbered in electric vehicles I do find that comical
> possible revolutionary products ahead.
Which products? EVs are a commodity. Self driving technology is better at Waymo, and in China, the latest Huawei version of self driving, installed in Avatar cars, is on par with Tesla’s and even better in some cases. What’s left? The Optimus robot? Unitree from China and Boston Dynamics (owned by Toyota), are ahead of Tesla. Not to mention the hundreds of startups in China working on the same thing, all using essentially the same transformer based architecture with only minor tweaks. There’s no moat this time. What Tesla still excels at is marketing and hype, but even that has its limits.
I’m sure they’ll deliver those revolutionary products just like they delivered on Dojo, Solar Roofs, Roadster, Semi, robotaxis…
they do well for a real stock price of roughly $48/share. it is not “hate” to state something that is obvious to anyone but Elon fanboys(girls).
I didn't say it's hate. I said that they may hate him. There's a difference. Considering Tesla is doing great compared to other companies like BYD who are their biggest worldwide competitor and they are hemmoraging money
BYD does not have P/E ratio of 8967 like TSLA though
Tesla has a PE of 207.60
That's a disastrous P/E ratio
When AAPL and NVDA breached the 3T mark I was convinced that they’ve hit a ceiling. But, time has shown that I was wrong. I think any valuation is possible now.
Insightful comment because this is the exact psychology that leads to bubbles!
True. But a bubble is only confirmed once it bursts.
Given that market can remain crazy longer than I can remain solvent I’d rather be invested in it.
Insightful comment because this is the exact psychology that leads to bubbles!
Well, now that the US has a War Department, and its Secretary of War Hegseth is publicly stating they are not going to defend but attack, one would assume US troops are going to be doing some pilfering in South America.
Again.
I think he said something along the lines of bringing back the “warrior ethos,” and the US has been losing since Vietnam. I have no idea what he’s talking about, but can’t imagine anyone having voted for this and related policies when they talked about bringing down the price of eggs.
I think whatever the surveys said, the egg prices/inflation actually had little to do with Trump victory and the left shouldn't be misled by this. People vote now for emotional reasons, reasons of identity, and these rational reasons are mostly cover--something you tell a pollster but not the real truth. Take note of anyone you know who gave this reason and see what they say about 6 months of manufacturing decline, slowing job growth, or about the inevitable inflation from tariffs...I bet most defend it in some way.
The right is now split into a faction that rejects foreign interventions and wants to withdraw, if not total isolationist then something in that direction, and another faction. At the elite level this other faction is ascendant. The lesson they have drawn from US military failures from Vietnam to GWOT is different from the former faction. In their view the problem is that we were not aggressive enough, we were too constrained by overly legalistic and conservative rules of engagement and various ideological goals which polluted the prosecution of the wars and prevented us from "winning". They DO want a more cruel, more aggressive force posture. They admire and defend Israel in large part because they see it as a model of a force which really believes in "winning". A substantial portion of the voter base is attracted to this, enthused by the prospect of aggressive campaigns in Latin America with relaxed rules of engagement, and sees the renaming to Department of War as a "based" declaration of this doctrine. The country is moving more in this direction and the more isolationist (kind of "Buchananite") wing is getting purged again, but with some concessions made to them.
I am not sure the left has any answer to this right now because it has discredited itself with so many, especially losing a lot of younger men (those under 21 heavily favor Republicans), and generally the country may simply be moving in this direction. I think be clear eyed what you are facing.
The problem with trying to read things into the results of the 2024 election is that they’re totally in line with a global thrashing of incumbents that occurred that year. Incumbents in the US actually did better than the average.
Humbly, I think this thinking is part of the problem. The incumbents were crushed because they mostly all copied each other and are seen as part of the same system. There are Western parties which have behaved differently and were not crushed. It wasn't just a meteorological event.
Everyone knows that it was not really about the eggs. I think in this thread it was used as sarcasm.
It was about the eggs but also immigration and men in women's private spaces and sports. Identity wasn't a big factor although everyone in high places and their bots work hard to make it so. We shall see.
Many actually do not seem to know this, especially in the political/think tank class. There are highly placed Democratic officials who blame inflation and point to this research.
This spectrum of political doctrine is also about to run the US economy into a very rough recession that I don’t think will be undone until Trump and his ideas get the boot from politics in some meaningful way.
It’s going to be a bad time real quick
I'm in South America. I see electric BYD everywhere and not a single Tesla. The same in SEA. Your theory could explain something. Force 'em all to purchase Tesla instead of BYD.
In Singapore there is a mix, but BYD seems to be a growing quickly - just anecdotal
> Well, now that the US has a War Department
That was the department's name for 150 years.. until doublespeak became popular in the 1940's
> Well, now that the US has a War Department
I thought you were joking. Wtf.
Via a POTUS flourish that has no legality ..
(Congress established and must approve any DoD changes)
Such actions are increasingly common and remain effectively unchallenged, stalled all the way to a compliant SCOTUS that falls in line rather than be ignored should they rule against.
Besides attacking litter and underbrush in the capital?
after they are done pilfering North America?
Get DOGE to dismantle all federal agencies including Medicare, IRS, and Social Security. Then contract out those same functions to Tesla in the name of efficiency?
The negativity of this ambitious goal in this discussion is worrying. He did achieve all the goals set in the then 2018 lofty goals. He may just do it again. And despite being late, Tesla seems to be delivering slowly on all their promises. It's slow, and often deceptive, but not criminally so.
Hopefully this will provide sufficient incentive for Elon to focus more on business and less on social media, politics and culture war distractions.
If billions weren't enough, why should we expect a trillion to work?
lol.
Doesn’t he have to grow market cap 8x in 10 years? I can’t imagine how stiff the competition will be over the next decade.
If he gets that robot in every home or office... It won't be THAT hard.
I hear it's happening next year.
They only promise 1 million robots, so no problem! The crazy thing is they're still betting on robocars (10 million subscriptions) despite still not having sold a single fully autonomous ride.
What makes Tesla better-equipped to deliver on autonomy than other companies? The argument with FSD was that Tesla had cars on the road gathering real-world data and that their solution was cheaper and more scalable (not that either of these actually helped them in the end). What is the argument for robotics?
> What makes Tesla better-equipped to deliver on autonomy than other companies?
A willingness to ship at a much lower level of technical readiness and safety, and a reasonable chance of achieving enough regulatory capture to be allowed to do so.
It's very worrying. Besides the sheer absurdity of it, as it is, it's a mix of valuation milestones and operational ones. But the thing is, that the first operational ones are 'easy' - Tesla is already on track to deliver 20 million vehicles within next 10 years. 10 million FSD subscription, 1 million robots, 1 million robotaxi ? This can all be very easily achieved if you bend the definition a bit. Hey, according to Tesla, they are already running a Robotaxi that is accessible to the public. Nevermind that there is a driver now in the driver's seat and the only thing that is public is an app, that puts you on the waiting list.
Given that, the only real issue is the valuation targets - and that folks, that's an open invitation for stock manipulation for the master manipulator himself.
Meanwhile, Musk can't stop babbling about white nationalism ("remigration") on Twitter: https://bsky.app/profile/harikunzru.bsky.social/post/3lxrqzm...
I have to conclude that members of the board are in full support of this behavior.
[dupe] Earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45137484
How are they not noticing cheaper, better cars, pending lawsuits, toyota's invention of aluminum batteries making lithium obsolete, end of early mover advantage, and history of underdelivering?
I think you misunderstand. There's no reason to think they're not aware. It's more: "If you do this very difficult, nearly impossible thing (given the current situation), we'll give you a ridiculous amount of money for the miracle, because you'll make us rich in the process".
Since it's apparently all denominated in stock, and vesting is conditional on multiplying the stock price 7.5x over the next decade*, every misgiving over the current valuation should make this package all the more worth it to shareholders (who the board is supposed to represent).
*or at least the sort of operational milestones that make for the kind of pithy headlines that prop up the stock price
I believe Tesla bulls are banking on robots, robo-taxis, and other products. Surely nobody believes Tesla's consumer car business is poised to grow. (Given the history of under-delivering, etc., I wouldn't bet on Tesla dominating robotics or any other field, but as I understand it, this incentive package has no particular downside for shareholders.)
What kind of robots? Factory robots? Androids? China has abt 3 android companies for every american one. It's also an unproven market. Android forms are not great at asserting force in any direction yet. Complex vision remains a problem, but will hopefully advance. Im not pessimistic, but the risk is enormous.
I have not kept up- what does their industrial battery segment look like? That seemed like a market with huge growth potential, but maybe batteries are too commoditized now. Plus, supporting the renewable woke agenda.
Investors who bought an expensive hype stock have now realized it's a giant bubble that will burst the moment they start selling their considerable shares.
Their only option is to desperately ride on, hoping to stay ahead of the tide until they find some higher ground. Who knows: dangling a giant carrot in front of their mule might help?
Yeah this feels like a way to entice current investors into not pulling out.
"Look, you'll miss out on trillions if you pull out now! Please, we're so close!"
yep, this is it exactly.
“please don’t notice the bubble please don’t notice the bubble please don’t notice the bubble”
Would Musk become a full-time CEO in exchange for this compensation package?
Of course not. He'd lose his diablo 4 ladder rank
Didn't he lie about how good he was at diablo as well?
He very obviously paid people to play the game for him, but he is sufficiently CEO-brained that he may actually believing that paying someone to do something means that you did it.
Just need to make some memecoin that can only be farmed on the cybertruck processor.
It is likely worth it - the Tesla robot will be the most advanced consumer grade product ever made. Shocked but not shocked that Apple didn't beat them to it (not shocked because Cook was just using Jobs playbook that only lasted for so long)
This has to be a bit. You can't possibly believe Musk's fantasies after a couple decades of hilarious (and occasionally dangerous) lies.
>You can't possibly believe Musk's fantasies after a couple decades of hilarious (and occasionally dangerous) lies.
Eh, betting against Musk generally seems to be a losing proposition. Starlink alone would have given me faith in his abilities, what Tesla's done with Models 3 and Y and SpaceX with Falcon 9 gives me all the more reason to believe him. Yes, despite the absurd timelines, which I'm generally okay with. (Not OP)
Like 10 years of promises of Full Self Driving which does not drive itself.
People never learn. The haters always think this time will be different.
Tesla robot will be the most advanced consumer grade product ever made.
There is a much better chance of me fathering a child with Madonna than this
its entirely possible. clearly we have all the input signals that we need in electronic form:
inertia (IMU), vision (CCD), skin pressure (not sure?), absolute offset/absolute rotation (optical encoders)
so now the question is: how do we convert this bag of signals into mimicking a human. this question has been asked for text already, and the answer is LLMs which can, at the very least, mimick humans pretty well.
if a humanoid can be made to mimick a cook, or a cleaner, or manual labor, be able to navigate human geometry (stairs, ramps, etc.) that is already huge.
i agree that it would be the most advanced consumer grade product - the only thing that might beat it, is a domestic nuclear reactor.
I would not trust a company which has been saying they can get a car to go by itself from here to there for the last 13 years to make a humanoid robot cook :) first time there is any grease or dirt that robot gonna suffocate and die!
people will eat this shit up though, next 11 years every earnings report will say robots will be cooking at michelin star restaurants “soon”
All that stuff is just details. Like with autonomous cars. Elon may be late to the party and slower to execute but he will talk so loudly about it and make sure the media conflates robots with Tesla, so personal robots will basically become his idea.
For Tesla shareholders being the "first" with the idea has incredible value.
It has to handle dirt, water, soap, five-year olds who pour sugar water over the robotic hands etc.
So far I've only seen these things in clean and dry environments, where they fold dry laundry, badly.
It looks like an absolute and expensive maintenance nightmare. Also, I'd worry about prompt injection or malfunction. Better carry an axe at all times:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jul/24/chess-robot-gr...
true. and since this approach worked perfectly with full self driving, why shouldn't it also work here?
How about the myriad of other companies that produce Robots? Like Figure and a large number of Chinese outlets? Tesla is not the winner in electric cars why would they be better at robots. My guess is low cost robots from China will be everywhere..
>...Tesla is not the winner in electric cars
With all due respect, what in the world are you on about?
.. ever heard of BYD? BMW just released the first car on their new platform that is better then Teslas in pretty much every way .. Musk has ruined Tesla with bets on wrong cars i.e Cybertruck instead of pushing price and volume.
Musk has done a lot of brand damage to Tesla.
Tesla's sales are down, revenue is down, profit is down, and Tesla continues to lose EV market share.
Except the US. Because tariffs.
Why are you no longet talking about tesla revolutionizing solar industry?
There’s no proof the Tesla robot will ever amount to anything. As one example, the boring company & the Tesla loops in Vegas are pathetic.
They are doing 30k passengers a day. That's not pathetic lol
Compared to transit in any other city in the world it's ridiculously pathetic. Compared to American cities it is just pathetic.
Not at all. It's traffic that is completely below ground which means that no streets above are burdened with it, it's all electric so no emissions. Name me any other form of transportation that was built so affordably in the US and moves this many people while not impacting street traffic?
By comparison the Vegas Monorail cost 5x as much, took 1/3rd longer to build, and takes roughly a third of the passengers that the Boring tunnel does. This is a huge win for Las Vegas, and they continue to build out because it's worked out well for them.
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