China grew 5.2% last year and is growing faster than the US this year. Clearly problems with how they allow startups to operate but growth is happening. Do you trust the numbers? That’s another story.
I don’t understand how anyone can trust the numbers coming out of Russia or China.
In both cases, there is zero transparency.
There has to be some basis to link public numbers with reality because very large sums of money aren't invested without more due diligence than a HN sceptical hot take.
People dislike the one party state but they work with it because the fundamentals work. Temporary glitches happen, informing central planning false numbers is unsustainable in the long term, you can't hide the bodies and waste forever.
> informing central planning false numbers is unsustainable in the long term, you can't hide the bodies and waste forever.
I would argue that this is a major reason why modern history is littered with the corpses of authoritarian regimes. They "work great" until the lie-debt stacks up to the point where it is undeniable.
From my understanding, outside of taking the CCP at their word, there is no way to confidently state either way. To me, I haven’t seen much reason to trust the CCP’s word when it comes to discussing itself.
> China grew 5.2% last year and is growing faster than the US this year.
This is true, but insufficient.
US GDP per capita is 6.3x that of China. So the US' 2.4% growth last year was 3x larger than China's on an absolute per capita basis.
If China ever hopes to become a high income country it needs to grow in the 10% per year every year, for the next two decades.
In fact, if the US has mediocre growth of 3%, and China 9%, for the next 20 years, China will still only be half as rich as the US. China would need to maintain a growth rate of 12-13% per year, for 2 decades if it ever hope to match US wealth.
China is expected to see a population decrease while America an increase https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...
America's growth is narrowly focused on the digital tech sector. This is a fragile position and now requires the full force of tariff and bans to sustain.
The GDP per capita is also a not great indicator of wealth for those actually living inside the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
> America's growth is narrowly focused on the digital tech sector.
This is incorrect. Tech gets the most attention, but it's not the driver of GDP growth.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/248004/percentage-added-...
> This is a fragile position and now requires the full force of tariff and bans to sustain.
This doesn't even jive with your prior sentence. The US doesn't use tariffs to protect the tech sector. However, China outright bans foreign tech in many cases. Maybe you mixed up the countries?
> The GDP per capita is also a not great indicator of wealth for those actually living inside the country.
It's not perfect, but it's best we have. You can consider it the maximum amount of wealth that can be distributed within the country.
And I'm not sure why you linked to GDP by PPP. It's just COL adjusted GDP, which can be helpful, but has many caveats of it's own.
If "finance, insurance ... " and "Government" are actually the drivers to GDP growth then one has quite a bit more to worry about than the fact that this number is a mere 2.4%
I was more referring to growth in the value of the companies in the snp 500. https://insight.factset.com/are-the-magnificent-7-the-top-co...
Why I responded initially was because the focus on GDP per capita. This isnt a great way to compare living standards and it isnt a great way to compare economic prowess.
Another "China will collapse in X months/years".